Beef prices are at record highs and the U.S. cattle herd is at its smallest size since 1951 — a supply crunch years in the making. But instead of helping ranchers and consumers get through it, Trump’s trade war, his war in Iran, and his administration’s bungled response to a screwworm outbreak have made things worse for everyone: ranchers squeezed by rising costs and undercut by foreign imports, and shoppers paying more at the meat counter with no relief in sight.
BY THE NUMBERS
- Beef and veal prices are at a record high – 12.9% higher in May than a year earlier, and USDA forecasts another 10% increase in 2026.
- 39% of consumers say they’ve reduced their beef purchases because of price.
- The U.S. cattle herd has shrunk to 86.2 million head — the smallest since 1951 — leaving little room to absorb new shocks to supply.
- Trump signed an executive order in February quadrupling tariff-free beef imports from Argentina, a move the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association says risks “damaging the livelihoods of American cattlemen and women.”
- Diesel is averaging $4.98 a gallon as of June 24 — up 34% from a year ago, driving up the cost of hauling cattle, running feedlots, and getting beef from ranch to grocery shelf. High prices at the pump may linger for weeks or months even if the Iran war ends.
“A KICK IN THE NUTS”: TRUMP’S TRADE WAR IS UNDERCUTTING RANCHERS AND DOING NOTHING TO LOWER PRICES FOR CONSUMERS
Trump Quadrupled Tariff-Free Beef Imports From Argentina Despite Furious Pushback From His Own Base. In October 2025, Trump’s plan to quadruple Argentine beef imports sparked outrage from ranchers across the country, many of whom voted for him. Kansas rancher Kyle Hemmert called it “really just a kick in the nuts,” asking, “Come on, President Trump, this is ‘America First’ policy? No.” Kentucky cattleman Matt Gajdzik said it felt “like a gut punch, or a slap in the face.” Trump signed the plan anyway in February 2026.
The Nation’s Largest Cattle Industry Groups Say the Policy Is Hurting Ranchers Without Lowering Prices for Shoppers. Justin Tupper, a South Dakota cattle producer and president of the United States Cattlemen’s Association, said a deal of this magnitude with Argentina “would undercut the very foundation of our cattle industry.” When the deal was signed, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association CEO Colin Woodall warned the plan risked “damaging the livelihoods of American cattlemen and women, while doing little to impact the price consumers are paying at the grocery store.” Even Republican Sen. Deb Fischer of Nebraska said the move would “sideline” American ranchers.
- Industry Economists Say More Imports Won’t Fix the Real Problem And Won’t Bring Down Retail Beef Prices. Bill Bullard, CEO of R-CALF USA, said other administrations have tried the same approach and “consumer beef prices were not reduced by increased supplies of imported beef. Instead, increased quantities of imports correlated with the shrinking of the U.S. cattle herd, the exodus of U.S. cattle farmers and ranchers and higher consumer beef prices.”
Shoppers Are Already Changing How They Shop, and It Still Isn’t Enough. Nearly 4 in 10 consumers say they’ve cut back on beef purchases because of price, and major retailers report middle-income shoppers shifting from steak to ground beef just to keep beef on the table at all. Despite that, government forecasters still expect beef prices to rise another 10% or more this year.
TRUMP’S WAR IN IRAN IS DRIVING UP THE COST OF RAISING, HAULING, AND BUYING BEEF
Diesel Is Up 34% Year-Over-Year, and Cattle Operations Run on Diesel. The national average diesel price is $4.98 a gallon as of June 24, up from $3.71 a year ago, driven largely by oil supply disruption from Trump’s war in Iran. Diesel powers nearly every part of a cattle operation: feed delivery, water systems, feedlot equipment, and the trucks that haul livestock between ranches, feedlots, and packing plants — and those costs eventually show up on the price tag at the grocery store, too.
Fertilizer and Feed Costs Tied to the War Are Adding to the Squeeze. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a third of the world’s fertilizer trade passes, sent fertilizer prices soaring just as ranchers and farmers needed it most for hay and feed crops. Far West Agribusiness Association executive director Doug Brock said the disruption spans “everything from the dry-land wheat guys, to irrigated agriculture… heck, even the dairy and beef guys — it affects everybody.”
Ranchers Say Their Costs Are Rising Right Alongside the Prices Shoppers See at the Register. Jason Cleere, a Texas A&M beef cattle specialist and rancher himself, put it plainly: “Our expenses have gone up just like your beef prices have gone up. I don’t want our ranchers to be painted as the bad guys that are evil that are making all the money.” Diesel, equipment, and fertilizer costs are rising for ranchers at the same time shoppers are paying more, with both ends of the supply chain getting squeezed and neither benefiting.
TRUMP BROKE AMERICA’S SCREWWORM DEFENSES AND BOTH RANCHERS AND SHOPPERS ARE PAYING THE PRICE
Trump and DOGE Dismantled the Defenses That Kept Screwworm Out for 60 Years. The U.S. eliminated New World screwworm, through a decades-long sterile-fly eradication program. In 2025, the Trump administration eliminated more than 100 U.S.-funded programs monitoring and containing screwworm in Central America, and DOGE cuts gutted nearly a quarter of the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service — the frontline agency for stopping it at the border. Trump also reversed a border closure the Biden USDA had put in place to slow its spread. By June 2026, screwworm had reached Texas for the first time since 1966, and spread to New Mexico within days.
The Screwworm Outbreak Is Hitting Ranchers’ Bottom Lines. A USDA estimate based on the 1976 outbreak puts the potential annual cost of a screwworm outbreak to the Texas economy at $1.8 billion, including $732 million a year in losses for Texas farmers alone from livestock deaths, veterinary care, and lost productivity. Lubbock Feeders, which has fattened cattle in West Texas since the 1950s, is on the brink of closure after the border closure dried up the Mexican cattle supply it relied on for most of its inventory. Meanwhile, Mexican ranchers and processors are expanding their own feedlots and slaughter capacity to fill the gap — capacity, and the jobs that come with it, that used to belong to American feedlots, truckers, and meatpacking workers.
The Outbreak Is Pushing Any Relief on Beef Prices Even Further Out of Reach for Shoppers. Beef prices hit record highs in May. Prices have climbed steadily as the U.S. cattle herd shrank to its lowest levels in 75 years and the screwworm makes rebuilding that herd even harder, since young calves and their mothers are among the most vulnerable to the parasite. Containment measures, quarantines, and movement restrictions are further squeezing an already constrained supply. Barclays analysts say any relief on beef prices for consumers has already been pushed from 2027 to 2028 at the earliest.
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