“Growth Has Simply Vanished:” American Economy Shrinking for First Time in 3 Years Blamed On Trump’s Unpopular, Unaffordable Tariffs
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Donald Trump is working to benefit himself and his wealthy friends at the expense of the American people. His tariffs, highly regressive taxes on those who can least afford them, are raising prices on everything, from groceries to clothes to cars, and they’re causing the U.S. economy to crash and burn as evidenced by today’s news that the U.S. economy shrank in the first quarter of this year – the first time the economy has contracted in three years. But don’t take our word for it.
See expert reporting and analysis on Trump’s crashing economy below:
Former Secretary of Treasury Larry Summers: “This has probably been the least successful first hundred days of a presidency @realDonaldTrump on the economy in the last century. We have seen the stock market go down, the dollar go down, forecasts of unemployment go up, forecasts of inflation go up, forecasts on the odds of a recession go up. We’ve seen consumer confidence collapse. We’ve seen businesses take back all their previous earnings projections. So, this has been a disastrous hundred days for the US economy.”
Chief Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics Ian Shepherdson: “A period of stagnation now likely lies ahead if the current set of tariffs is maintained, with recession the most likely outcome if the additional reciprocal tariffs are imposed in full in July.”
Chief Economist at Financial Research Firm Fwdbonds Chris Rupkey: “Growth has simply vanished…Maybe some of this negativity is due to a rush to bring in imports before the tariffs go up, but there is simply no way for policy advisers to sugarcoat this.”
Director of the Center for Economic Research at George Washington University Tara Sinclair: “The weakness this quarter is also a preview of weakness in future quarters. We are seeing a dramatic change in people’s behavior, similar to what we saw during the shock of the pandemic. They’re front-loading purchases they might’ve made earlier in the year, and that’s very concerning for future quarters.”
Economics Professor Arin Dube: “The data is still clouded by quirks (like rush to by imports). But under current policy path, the coming months will likely show accumulating evidence that Trump’s trade polices destroyed the economic expansion. Or Trump may backtrack on essentially his entire trade policy. Of course there is a good chance we may see both. Trump surrenders but it’s too late to avert a 2025 downturn, as called by NBER.”
Senior Economist at the Center for Economic & Policy Research Dean Baker: “Factory construction fell at a 4.5 percent annual rate in the first quarter after more than doubling from 2019 to 2024.”
Washington Post Economic Columnist Heather Long: “Look at the huge surge in imports in Q1 2025 as US companies tried to get ahead of Trump’s tariffs…50.9% jump in goods imports. 22.5% surge in equipment spending…This is why Q1 2025 growth fell to -0.3%. Without this, growth would have slowed but not in this crazy way.”
Yale Budget Lab Director of Economics Ernie Tedeschi: “This report is almost exactly what an otherwise-healthy economy looks like *anticipating*–but not yet directly hurt by–tariffs. Consumer durables spending collapses. Services are fine for the moment. Businesses get in as many imports as they can and stock up their inventories.”